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Friday, 30 December 2011

Olivier Rech predicts oil decline shortly after 2015



Original source: Le Monde http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/30/oi-will-decline-2015-according-to-a-former-expert-of-the-international-energy-agency/

Olivier Rech is a top Energy Fund Advisor and oil and gas analyst at the International Energy Advisor. In a recent interview he predicted a sharp decline in oil production somewhere between now and 2015. He is just one of numerous oil industry experts who have forecast an imminent decline in the global extraction of crude oil. He says that outside of OPEC we face an annual decline of 1 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This is close to the 5% annual decline predicted by Royal Dutch Shell.

The situation with OPEC is less easy to discern, but both Barclays and Goldmann Sachs believe that OPEC's figures for spare production capacity are a lot lower than they claim.

Since 2005 oil production has been on a plateau of 82m bpd. Rech believes that an increase in this figure will be next to impossible and as a result the first real oil tensions will begin to appear somewhere between 2013 and 2015. After that, there will be a decline in all forms of liquid fuel between 2015 and 2020.

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